Author Topic: Convince me Covid-19 is worse than the usual run of viral pneumonias, huh?  (Read 6704 times)

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GravitySucks

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There was not a single piece of chicken in the store this morning. Not even a back or container of gizzards.

Maybe they flew the coop.
Are we having fun yet?

anniem

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I feel soooo oolllld, because I remember it as current events.

I remember it too.   :P

Robert

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You are correct.  The CDC began hiring quarantine managers in many states a month before the virus was known.  High paid managers, like up to $100K per year.  Careers are being invested in quarantines...  in a country which has never had major quarantines...  a month before the virus was even known.  So.  That tells me that all the hysteria is engineered.

It's not uncommon in Italy for 20,000 people to die of the flu in any flu season.  And since November, only about 4500 have died of the virus.  So.   I rule Italy out as proof of a pandemic.

[...]

In my area, funerals are prohibited.  Over 50 at church is prohibited.
There weren't such stringent measures taken during the polio epidemics of the 20th Century!  Theaters and swimming pools closed, stuff like that, but not ordinary businesses.
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Everyone buys into this mass hysteria, in part because of the way charts show the virus deaths' growing exponentially.  However, the charts are completely irrational, because they start at zero.  But there never was a zero.  There just weren't tests widely available. 

Reliable sources say the virus did not come from China necessarily.  So, it may have been around for decades undetected.  After all, the symptoms are the same as the flu.
I've been asking on Quora what makes people think this virus is "novel".  The answer is that "novel" has a technical meaning in virology or maybe biology generally of which I was unaware -- and I used to teach biology!  Apparently "novel" means "not previously discovered", "not previously characterized", "not previously recognized as such"...words to that effect.  But people have been assuming it's actually new.  Maybe it's like patent practice, wherein if something was not publicly known, it can be claimed as novel.

If this virus is not new, then some people may have had specific immunity to it.  Apparently antibodies aren't widespread, though, because the virus does not find any antibody to react to in pooled human sera.

A virus doesn't have to be new to cause epidemics.  The agent of the aforementioned polio, poliovirus, was ancient.  Sanitation had gotten too good, so that while cholera and dysentery were prevented, people were also prevented from getting the early exposure, and hence natural immunity to, poliovirus, so epidemics with signficant numbers of paralytic cases started occurring.

We old and sick types get viral pneumonias.  Enough of us die from it that it's considered one of the leading causes of death.  The people dying from Covid-19 would likely have gotten some other fatal pneumonia sooner or later.  Nobody previously has thought to try to prevent this phenomenon by controlling pneumonia viruses in the general population, even if somewhat effective vaccines for them are developed.

2 years ago at this time of year, I contracted parainfluenza B, an infection that mainly affects babies.  I wound up nearly dying, not from the infection, but from overaggressive treatment for it.  I think I might've explained how here.  Some fraction of cases of Covid-19 will result in stories like that too, just going by the odds in medical treatment.

PB

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… I've been asking on Quora what makes people think this virus is "novel".  The answer is that "novel" has a technical meaning in virology or maybe biology generally of which I was unaware -- and I used to teach biology!  Apparently "novel" means "not previously discovered", "not previously characterized", "not previously recognized as such"...words to that effect...

I've heard various reports regarding the ''newness'' of this as well.  Here's what the CDC has to say:

''A novel coronavirus is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the coronaviruses that commonly circulate among humans and cause mild illness, like the common cold.''

And ''There are many types of human coronaviruses including some that commonly cause mild upper-respiratory tract illnesses. COVID-19 is a new disease, caused be a novel (or new) coronavirus that has not previously been seen in humans.''

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html


Supposedly this is a new strain (if that's the word) that recently made the jump from animals to humans.

JUAN

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I feel soooo oolllld, because I remember it as current events.
Me, too.
Merry Christmas.

anniem

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I've heard various reports regarding the ''newness'' of this as well.  Here's what the CDC has to say:

''A novel coronavirus is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the coronaviruses that commonly circulate among humans and cause mild illness, like the common cold.''

And ''There are many types of human coronaviruses including some that commonly cause mild upper-respiratory tract illnesses. COVID-19 is a new disease, caused be a novel (or new) coronavirus that has not previously been seen in humans.''

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html


Supposedly this is a new strain (if that's the word) that recently made the jump from animals to humans.

Jumped from China.

PB

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I'm wondering how long people are going to agree to be under lockdown.  The federal government said 15 days and people went along with it for the greater good.  All along there's been dire rumblings this may last months, if not years.  Now states are having people stay in well into April.

Many of the small businesses - and even large companies in entire industries like airlines - may go bankrupt and never recover.  Perhaps we overindulge in entertainment and eating out, but are we really going to permanently lose a large percent of them?

I'm just wondering what happens if we're still told to just stay home past about mid-April.

Sofia

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Anniem, thank you for your warm response.

I'm wondering how long people are going to agree to be under lockdown.  The federal government said 15 days and people went along with it for the greater good.  All along there's been dire rumblings this may last months, if not years.  Now states are having people stay in well into April.

Many of the small businesses - and even large companies in entire industries like airlines - may go bankrupt and never recover.  Perhaps we overindulge in entertainment and eating out, but are we really going to permanently lose a large percent of them?

I'm just wondering what happens if we're still told to just stay home past about mid-April.
The CDC is hiring high paid quarantine managers and has been since Nov.  15 days is b.s.

Jumped from China.
Anniem experts are now doubting that.

There weren't such stringent measures taken during the polio epidemics of the 20th Century!  Theaters and swimming pools closed, stuff like that, but not ordinary businesses.I've been asking on Quora what makes people think this virus is "novel".  The answer is that "novel" has a technical meaning in virology or maybe biology generally of which I was unaware -- and I used to teach biology!  Apparently "novel" means "not previously discovered", "not previously characterized", "not previously recognized as such"...words to that effect.  But people have been assuming it's actually new.  Maybe it's like patent practice, wherein if something was not publicly known, it can be claimed as novel.


We old and sick types get viral pneumonias.
Sorry about your near death illness and too aggressive treatment.

I agree that regardless of word meaning, thr word novel is deliberately sensationalistic.

A few days ago I heard that of all the people tested in Korea, 1% had the virus. All of the rest had other illnesses.

Very true.

How often do we focus on testing to see what sort of winter illness a person has? Pretty much, if a person is sick with anything and they don't stay home they will spread it. Last October I was livid at a co-worker who came to work 5 days before I was scheduled for surgery with a full blown coughing sneezing cold. We shared an office! If I got her cold, guess what....surgery cancelled. I complained, but nothing happened. Nobody cared or did anything about it. So I went and found an empty office to work in. I did not get her cold. Too bad there isn't a test for stupidity.

You make a number of excellent points.  Whoever might benefit from this is in complete cahoots with the mainstream media. I suspect that politics is in play here to try to regain their power.
How immoral of your coworker and employer.  I see it all the time in my workplaces too, even when sick leave is available and stats are ok, allowing the leave.  A lot of people suck.  Did you reschedule or is the surgery no longer necessary?



anniem

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Anniem, thank you for your warm response.

 :)

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Anniem experts are now doubting that.

There is an exchange student from that area who is here, he is friends with one of the PT techs I've been seeing. He is adamant that it came from the lab. He said he can tell us that, but when he goes back he will no longer be able to speak of it. I don't think they invented it, but it seems reasonable and likely that they modified it. Hard to say for sure.

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How immoral of your coworker and employer.  I see it all the time in my workplaces too, even when sick leave is available and stats are ok, allowing the leave.  A lot of people suck.  Did you reschedule or is the surgery no longer necessary?

I did not catch the cold, and my surgery went off as planned. Thank you for asking!  :)

Bart Ell

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GravitySucks

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Are we having fun yet?

Zetaspeak

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I'm wondering how long people are going to agree to be under lockdown.  The federal government said 15 days and people went along with it for the greater good.  All along there's been dire rumblings this may last months, if not years.  Now states are having people stay in well into April.

Many of the small businesses - and even large companies in entire industries like airlines - may go bankrupt and never recover.  Perhaps we overindulge in entertainment and eating out, but are we really going to permanently lose a large percent of them?

I'm just wondering what happens if we're still told to just stay home past about mid-April.

That's a very interesting question, I had the same conversation today with somebody. There has to be a tipping point that makes people snap and wonder "what type of life is there" I guess it all depends on how high the case/mortality rate goes in the next month, if it goes really high and everybody knows somebody who affected by it, I think people will take it seriously. But I could also easily see people react to this like they do with gun violence/mass shootings where people think "Yeah it sucks, by what can you do, you gotta live" 

TigerLily

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... Anniem experts are now doubting that. ...


How does one become an Anniem expert? Does it require years of training and diligent field work to identify and record one in the wild? Or can I take an online course and receive a certificate? It seems like I may have extra time at home. I may as well do something productive with it
Visum utilem tempore

Robert

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Supposedly this is a new strain (if that's the word) that recently made the jump from animals to humans.
But we don't' know it hasn't previously arisen, and isn't somewhere else in the mix of coronaviruses colonizing humans.  It didn't react with pooled human sera, so immunity to it couldn't be very prevalent, but is not ruled out thereby as existing in the population.

Look at these data thru March 14, which at this writing is the last date CDC doesn't expect to add to.  The incidence peak in the USA passed March 11, before any of these publicized control measures were undertaken!

When the year wraps up, how much effect will this blip have on the total of pneumonia cases or deaths in the USA?


Robert

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I'm wondering how long people are going to agree to be under lockdown.  The federal government said 15 days and people went along with it for the greater good.  All along there's been dire rumblings this may last months, if not years.  Now states are having people stay in well into April.
It better not last beyond this week!  Once people look at the incidence (not prevalence) data and see it's been on a downward trend since 2 weeks ago, lockdown is done for.